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"I'll be positioned in this position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for another conversation in 2026.

There is never any time off for those in the top job. Just an hour before our chat started, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher precisely had transpired in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was much longer than normal, had finished, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

With the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had something of a refresh. Perhaps even just some a rest with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

That certainly seemed to have put him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a terrible political year for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters kidding themselves if they think his standing are poised to improve?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the prime minister is that many of his fellow MPs are convinced he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would sooner take a risk and get him out this year.

But Sir Keir was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "evaluated at the next election", insisting no one would take his term from him – even if the most effective strategy of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the battle of our times and I aim to guide the party," he said.

The May Elections

The challenge for the PM is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should one of his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections be very poor for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was reasonably eager for things to improve. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the public, that the coming months would be different.

The economic situation would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the administration put in place during their first rocky year began to take effect.

• He pledged to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, but he wouldn't set a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His core message is that soon the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing demands from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political vision, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his points were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, does he need a change of tack?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, has everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when past remarks he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political dangers as the year gets going. His alliance with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be content with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Some called for him to condemn it before we spoke. And the government is likely to face more pressure to give an definitive view in Parliament in the coming days.

And there has consistently been growing pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's pursuing that, but his new firmer commitment to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the vast economic European market – will likely trigger protests that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to reverse the results that followed Brexit.

A decision to integrate into more of the single market will delight some on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to